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Tropical Cyclone Alfred: Moreton Bay on alert

Last Updated: 3 Mar 2025

By Nick Crockford and Kylie Knight

UPDATE 8PM: University of the Sunshine Coast UniSC researchers have warned of the possible impact of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

UniSC Associate Professor of Physical Geography Javier Leon says there are extreme hazards facing a coastline already eroded by the weekend’s high winds, swell and tides.
“Tropical Cyclone Alfred will have a significant impact on regional beaches and dunes,” he says.
“Waves are expected to peak at seven metres from a southeasterly direction, which would make this a 1 in 20 or 1 in 50 AEP (annual exceedance probability) event, similar to Tropical Cyclone Oma back in 2019.
“What makes Alfred uniquely hazardous is that, as opposed to Oma, the coast is already eroded from the run of northeasterly and easterly swells and very high tides in the past couple of days.
“This means that as peak wave heights approach the coast at some stage this Wednesday, the chances of overtopping and flooding are high, especially during high tide.
“Similarly, Bribie Island has already been subject to considerable erosion, with reports of the Happy Valley channel reopening.
“This would have serious implications for places such as Golden Beach, which are now very exposed to wave energy.”

UPDATE 6.30PM: Unitywater says its crews are ready to respond to any potential weather event linked with Cyclone Alfred in the City of Moreton Bay.

Executive Manager Customer Delivery Rhett Duncan says crews are prepared to respond 24/7.

“Severe wet weather events can have impacts on water and wastewater services,” Mr Duncan says.

“Which is why Unitywater has taken measures to ensure we’re as prepared as we can be if it does track towards us or if we have a heavy rain event.

“We have proactive processes in place to make sure our network and our people are ready to respond safely and as quickly as possible.

“This includes rostering extra crew members over this weekend and into next week to prepare for any potential interruptions or repairs to the network, fuelling and checking essential equipment and making sure the reservoir levels are high.

“Our Control Room operators, who manage the operation of our entire water and wastewater networks, are also monitoring our network around the clock to keep an eye on the hundreds of pump stations, thousands of kilometres of pipes and our 17 wastewater treatment plants across the region.”

Unitywater is encouraging the community to take some simple steps to prepare for any service interruptions and protect their properties.

Checklist

1. Make sure your contact details are up to date with Unitywater so they can contact you in case of an emergency. Update at any time through ‘My Account’ at unitywater.com

2. Your house has an overflow relief gully (or ORG) that is designed to prevent your house flooding with sewage. Take simple steps to make sure it’s ready for heavy rain – including it’s not covered or blocked. Find out more at unitywater.com/check-your-org

3. If you spot a water leak or wastewater overflow, avoid contact with the sewage or dirty water and call Unitywater day or night on 1300 086 489 so crews can respond.

4. Power outages can also impact water supply. Set aside 10 litres of water per person for three days’ of washing, bathing and drinking, in case you lose water in this weather event. Get Ready Queensland has a list of emergency kit items on their website, at getready.qld.gov.au/emergencykit

5. If you lose water during a weather event, check Unitywater’s Outage Map to see if your street is listed and when water is expected to be back on at unitywater.com/outages

Read more tips on how to prepare at unitywater.com/wetweather

UPDATE 5.45PM: The latest Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Advice update says TC Alfred is still a Category 1 system with sustained winds near the centre of 85km/h and wind gusts to 120km/h.

It is 500km east northeast of Brisbane and 480km east of Maroochydore, moving at 14km/h.

The cyclone is moving southeast but is expected to slow and turn west towards the Queensland coast from Tuesday onwards.

Alfred is expected to intensify to a Category 2 cyclone tonight as its south-eastwards movement slows. Its intensity may fluctuate between Category 1 and 2 while it remains off the coast during Tuesday and Wednesday.

As it approaches the coast on Thursday, Alfred is expected to maintain intensity as a Category 2 cyclone and make landfall between Brisbane and Sunshine Coast late on Thursday or Friday morning.

UPDATE 5.30PM: Moreton Bay City Council is replenishing sand after a day of unprecedented demand for sandbags.

“At this point today, we have gone through 900 tonnes of sand and 60,000 sandbags. We are on a constant program of replenishing sand and this will continue until 8pm tonight and start again in the morning,” a Council spokeswoman says.

“We have had an unprecedented influx of the community coming for sandbags, including at some depots where we have never seen this type of demand.”

UPDATE 4.15PM: Queensland Rail says timetabled services are continuing to operate, at this stage, but it will keep customers informed via its social media channels, website and the Translink Journey Planner if there are any changes.

UPDATE 4PM: The organisers of an International Women’s Day luncheon at Eatons Hill this Thursday have postponed the event as a precaution due to the forecast arrival of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The event was expected to fill the ballroom at Eatons Hill Hotel and feature Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Michelle Payne.

“The team at Moreton Bay Region Industry & Tourism have been closely monitoring the weather situation and forecasts for this week. Due to the tracking of Tropical Cyclone Alfred and the subsequent severe weather conditions predicted for South East Queensland, we have made the decision to postpone the International Women’s Day Luncheon to Thursday, March 13 - same time, same place,” the organisers said in a statement.

Tickets have been transferred to the new date. Visit the website for details.

UPDATE 1.30PM: Premier David Crisafulli has just provided an update on Tropical Cyclone Alfred, pleading with residents including those in Moreton Bay to take the threat seriously and prepare.

A Cyclone Watch has been issued for South East Quensland, covering the area from Sandy Cape to Grafton in New South Wales. There is also a Flood Watch, with catchments already saturated. It includes the Pine and Caboolture Rivers.

Mr Crisafulli says the likelihood of a coastal crossing has increased and his message to Queenslanders is to be prepared and to take warnings seriously.

The Bureau of Meteorology says it is a Category 1 system at present (10am) with sustained winds near the centre of 85km/h with wind gusts to 120km/h. The cyclone is 465km east northeast of Brisbane and 430km east northeast of Maroochydore, moving at 20km/h.

Alfred is expected to re-intensify to Category 2 strength ahead of the coastal crossing.

Mr Crisafulli says there are “three stages of this event”.

Stage one is big surf and erosion, with waves of more than 4m off Brisbane. Stage two is damaging winds and stage three is flooding.

He is asking people in low-lying areas (coastal and canals) to consider their plans for the cyclone crossing, including those living on houseboats.

Mr Crisafulli says the State Government is working with local councils to determine the possible impacts of storm surges on these communities.

The timing of the cyclone crossing is “variable” and could coincide with a high tide.

Schools will remain open tomorrow, with an update expected then to reveal if they will open on Wednesday and beyond. Mr Crisafulli has promised to give families as much notice as possible if closures are needed.

At this stage, Brisbane Airport remains open, but passengers are being urged to stay in touch with their airline for updates.

There are reports supplies at supermarkets are already dwindling. Mr Crisafulli says he has been in touch with major outlets, urging them to resupply during the day so people can buy the essentials they need.

In relation to sporting events, such as the Dolphins V Rabbitohs game at Suncorp on Friday night, the Premier says he is in close contact with clubs and would share information with them to pass on to ticket holders as needed.

“This is certainly an event that doesn’t happen a lot for this part of the state. History shows it can happen,” he says.

“We’re asking people to do all they can to prepare in the knowledge that we’re doing the same.”

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UPDATE 10.40am: City of Moreton Bay Mayor Peter Flannery has today urged residents to prepare for Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

TC Alfred is predicted to move towards the southern Queensland coast and expected to make landfall later this week with heavy rainfall and gale force winds expected.

“We are monitoring the evolving situation and have been in a heightened planning mode for all available scenarios,” Mayor Flannery said.

“While it is uncommon for cyclones to head this far south, we do need to take the very real danger of a significant cyclone event in the area seriously.

“Council staff are undertaking preparations and working with the State Disaster Centre, but right now locals need to use this time to prepare their homes and think about their pets, family and also check on neighbours.

“We encourage people to consider making plans to stay with family and friends if you live in low lying or exposed areas, prone to flooding."

The Mayor urged all residents to keep Council’s Disaster Dashboard close to hand.

“Here you will find up to date details on services, sandbag stations, road closures and other important information," he said.

“Know your risk and prepare your homes for the impact of severe weather, rain, winds and higher than normal tides.

“I understand many residents might be feeling a bit anxious, but rest assured our team is watching the situation closely and already operating around the clock with other key agencies to manage this situation if it escalates.

“As soon as new information comes to hand, we will be sharing this.”

Here’s what you need to know:

Understand your Risk - Follow Council’s Disaster Dashboard here: https://disaster.moretonbay.qld.gov.au/

Make a Plan - Check your emergency kit, secure loose items around your home, speak to your family and household about what you’ll do in the event of storms or severe weather. https://www.getready.qld.gov.au/getting-ready/protect-your-home

Pack a Kit - Check your emergency kit and replace items you may need

Sandbags stations are active.

Green waste stations are free and open for people to prepare their property ahead of severe weather.

Evacuation centres will open as required. Council will inform residents.

Current weather warnings can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/

To find out more about how to prepare for a cyclone go to: Cyclone and storm surge | Get Ready Queensland

UPDATE 5.30am: Tropical Cyclone Alfred is continuing its path to South East Queensland, with the City of Moreton Bay firmly in the warning area.

The Bureau of Meteorology says Alfred has strengthened to category 2 and is 465km northeast of Brisbane and 410km east northeast of Maroochydore, moving at 13 km/h.

It will continue its current southeastwards motion, further away from the Queensland coast, throughout Monday.

Alfred is then expected to slow down and turn westward from Tuesday, moving towards the southern Queensland coast.

Severe coastal hazards are likely for southern Queensland and northern New South Wales coasts.

A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell as well as abnormally high tides are occurring at exposed southern Queensland beaches, and are forecast to extend to northern New South Wales coast from Monday.

Heavy to locally intense rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday as Alfred approaches the coast, with 300-600mm possible. Flood Watches have been issued for these areas, including the Pine and Caboolture Rivers. A Strong Wind Warning has been issued for Moreton Bay.

Mr Crisafulli said modelling had “firmed” and a large area of the Queensland coastline, including Moreton Bay, was now in a precaution and preparation mode for severe weather this week with Tropical Cyclone Alfred expected to cross the coast.

He is urging people in this part of the state, not used to cyclones, to prepare in the days ahead and keep up to date with warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology.

The worst of the weather is expected on its southern edge, with damaging winds, heavy and intense rain, high tides, coastal erosion and flooding possible into next weekend.

He said there were concerns about the Pumicestone Passage area, particularly the northern tip of Bribie Island which is likely to sustain further devastating erosion.

Mr Crisafulli has spoken to telecommunications companies about maintaining connectivity so vital public safety messages can be shared with the community in a timely manner.

Emergency services are on standby including Queensland Fire and Rescue Service’s swift water teams as well as SES volunteers.

Energy providers are also preparing, pre-deploying generator capacity.

A Moreton Bay City Council spokeswoman says Council is monitoring the evolving situation and planning for all available scenarios to allow the community to be prepared.

Sandbag stations will be open on Monday afternoon.

Stay informed by visiting Moreton Bay City Council’s disaster dashboard: https://disaster.moretonbay.qld.gov.au/

Current BoM weather warnings can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/

To find out how to prepare for a cyclone visit: https://www.getready.qld.gov.au/getting-ready/protect-your-home