Tropical Cyclone Alfred: Moreton Bay Watch & Act

UPDATE 8PM: Tropical Cyclone Alfred is about 225km east of Brisbane and 215km east northeast of Gold Coast, moving at just 6km/h towards the coast. Moreton Bay is firmly in the firing line.

It remains a Category 2 system with sustained winds near the centre of 95km/h and wind gusts up to 130km/h.

Alfred is expected to remain of similar intensity until the centre starts to interact with the coast and islands. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast Friday night or early Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta.

UPDATE 5.15: All passenger flights in and out of Brisbane Airport have been suspended until further notice. 

Operations at Brisbane Airport will recommence as soon as it is safe to do so, when the weather system has passed and when the Airport’s terminals and runways are deemed safe to re-open. Do not come to the Airport until your airline advises you to.

UPDATE 4.45PM: The Bureau of Meteorology has just provided an update on Tropical Cyclone Alfred. It remains a Category 2 system with sustained winds near the centre of 95km/h and wind gusts to 130km/h.

It is presently 225km east of Brisbane and 210km east northeast of Gold Coast, moving at 8km/h towards the South East Queensland coast.

Alfred is currently category 2 and is expected to remain of similar intensity until the centre starts to interact with the coast and Islands.

The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast Friday night or early Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta.

“The latest track indicates a coastal crossing is more likely during early Saturday morning,” the update said.

UPDATE 4PM: Premier David Crisafulli’s second update of the day has revealed the impact of Tropical Cyclone Alfred is already being seen.

New satellite modelling shows the cyclone 240kms east of Brisbane and still forecast to cross the coastline late Friday and into the early hours of Saturday.

Cyclone Alfred remains a Category 2 system and a flood watch remains from the Mary River down to the Gold Coast border.

“The system is starting to pack a bit of punch,” Premier Crisafulli said, with recorded wind gusts of 96kms/h at Cape Moreton and 82kms/h at Double Island Point.

“Those winds will intensify,” he said.

Rainfall in the last 24 hours includes 184mm at Upper Running Creek, 114mm at Springbrook and 77mm on the Sunshine Coast.

More than 700 requests have been received by the SES for assistance – the vast majority for help preparing homes. 

Waves of 12.3m have been recorded on the Gold Coast.

Twenty-six shelters have been opened by SEQ councils 

In total, 23 swift water rescues crews are positioned in areas where they may be needed.

Doorknocking continues in locations which may be impacted by storm-tides or are in low-lying areas. 

Energex teams are also in position to respond to power issues, with support crews to clear vegetation which may be blocking roads or properties.

For the safety of patrols and tow truck operators, RACQ roadside assistance services will pause in South-East Queensland from 7pm tonight until it is safe to return.

UPDATE 2.15PM: Transport and Main Roads (TMR) says no bridges and roads will close in the lead-up to Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

With the cyclone forecast to hit the coast early Saturday morning, TMR says it is monitoring the situation and ready to act.

No major bridges, roads or tunnels are closed, at the time of writing.

But with increased wind and rain reducing visibility, motorists and pedestrians should drive to conditions, reduce speeds and as conditions worsen, avoid unnecessary travel.

TMR will notify residents if any road, bridge, or pedestrian connection is impacted by debris or damage via QLDTraffic.

Heavy vehicle operators should judge if their specific vehicles are safe to operate in any windy conditions that prevail.

Road users are asked to visit QLDTraffic, or call 13 19 40, for latest information on road closures and traffic alerts.

Visit disaster.qld.gov.au for information on Cyclone Alfred.

UPDATE 2.10PM: Seqwater’s Flood Operations Team has moved to 24/7 mobilisation ahead of forecast heavy rain associated with Cyclone Alfred.

The team – now in Stand Up activation level – will monitor rainfall in catchments, water flow into dams and follow dam release guidelines.

Seqwater only releases water from its gated dams - North Pine, Somerset and Wivenhoe - to manage flood risks, based on real-time data, not forecasts.

It does not release water before rain falls in a catchment, in line with the approved Flood Manual, to balance dam safety, water supply and flood mitigation.

The water storage capacity of Seqwater’s network is currently at 84.6 per cent.  North Pine Dam, with a reduced capacity of 54 per cent ahead of a major improvement work, is currently at 52.7 per cent. Somerset Dam 79.9 per cent and Wivenhoe 86.4 per cent.  

Wivenhoe has a dedicated flood storage compartment which is currently 100 per cent available.

UPDATE 1.45PM: Tropical Cyclone Alfred is about 245km east of Brisbane and 230km east northeast of the Gold Coast and remains a Category 2 system.

The latest Bureau of Meteorology update says it has sustained winds near the centre of 95km/h with wind gusts to 130km/h.

It is slowly moving towards the South East Queensland Coast at 7km/h.

Alfred is expected to remain a Category 2 system until the centre starts to interact with the coast and Islands.

The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast very early Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta.

UPDATE 12.30PM: Premier David Crisafulli has given the latest update on Tropical Cyclone Alfred as it nears the South-East Queensland coastline.

The Premier said it remains a Category 2 cyclone, with BoM adding there is now less chance of it reaching Category 3.

Cyclone Alfred is currently 280kms off Brisbane moving at 10kms an hour and still forecast to hit between the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast.

“We have seen delays in the system heading towards the coast. In the last few minutes we have been told that it could be pushed into Saturday morning,” Premier Crisafulli said.

“Overnight we’ve seen the system spin around on itself and resume its journey into the coast. Exactly where it will hit and when still, remains unknown.

“But the modelling continues to show it coming towards the coast, albeit it has been pushed into the early hours of Saturday.

“With every hour that approaches your window to prepare closes, but you do still have time.

“I assure you we have preparations in place and if you do your bit you will get through this.”

The Premier said residents in flood-prone areas should be prepared for storm-tide flooding, flash flooding and river flooding

“If the system crosses the coast, particularly on a high tide, there is a real risk of inundation in those storm-tide areas,” he said.

“If you live in one of those areas it is important to have a plan. If you are not in a flood-prone area, the safest place is in your home.”

Twenty-five refuge centres are now open in South-East Queensland, while 1030 schools and 324 early learning centres have closed.

Mass door-knocking has taken place in areas at risk of flooding, 34 water treatment plants have been fortified and assessments have been done on aged care facilities in vulnerable locations.

The Premier said roads and bridges will be kept open “as long as possible”, public transport is closed today and tomorrow and airlines are liaising with customers over flights.

No elective surgery will take place today and tomorrow, but hospitals are open for emergency procedures.

Supermarkets are making decisions on opening on a case-by-case basis.

The Premier also said it is important have at hand valuable items such as a passport, drivers’ licence …. “and any key form of identification which may help you get back on your feet after the event”.

UPDATE 11AM: Tropical Cyclone Alfred is now expected to cross the South East Queensland coast in the early hours on Saturday morning.

The Category 2 system has sustained winds near the centre of 95km/h with wind gusts to 130km/h.

It is presently about 245km east of Brisbane and 225km east northeast of Gold Coast, moving at 10km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been oscillating offshore of the South East Queensland coast. Alfred's approach to the southeast Queensland coast has slowed.

Alfred is currently category 2 and is expected to remain of similar intensity until the centre starts to interact with the coast and Islands.

The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast very early Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta.

The possibility of Alfred reaching low end Category 3 strength before making landfall is decreasing. Model guidance is extremely consistent in the intensity of Alfred plateauing after Thursday, even if it remains over water during Friday.

UPDATE 10.30AM: Moreton Bay City Council will prioritise evacuations from key areas of Bribie Island today as part of its rapid response plan to Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Mayor Peter Flannery says the Moreton Bay Disaster Management Centre conducted an urgent call out campaign overnight to residential properties on Bribie that have been identified as vulnerable in a worst-case storm tide scenario.

It comes as council plans to replenish sandbag stations at Margate, Caboolture and Bribie from 11am. Other sandbag stations will be progressively replenished today. Council is sourcing more sandbags, but is urging people to bring their own bags and also a shovel.

More than 170 properties in Bellara, Bongaree and Banksia Beach areas have been identified as most vulnerable to a possible major storm surge from cyclone conditions and high tides.

The team called 104 residents to assess their needs for assisted evacuation, with the remainder being contacted this morning to assess their need for an assisted evacuation to a place of refuge.

“Under the urgent operation, Council, SES and QPS will initially evacuate these designated people who have made themselves known to Council’s place of refuge at Caboolture,” Mayor Flannery says.

“These people will then be encouraged to take shelter with family or friends. If that is not possible, they will be housed at the evacuation centre until TC Alfred has passed.

“The current forecast has the TC Alfred wind speed loop situated over Bribie Island which saw the need to urgently implement the Bribie evacuation plan. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is now predicted to make landfall early Friday night.

“Earlier in the week, with the support of Queensland Police and SES, 1900 properties across City of Moreton Bay in low lying areas were doorknocked. Extra police and emergency services have been deployed to key areas across the City.

“City of Moreton Bay recognises that others across the City are also at risk of higher than forecast storm tide in a range of low-lying areas but right now we need to address the specific vulnerabilities on Bribie Island, that is at very real danger of being isolated.”

Mayor Flannery says people on the mainland in low lying areas that will be impacted by storm surge, need to consider if they need to act now move where it is safer or if they can shelter in place.

“These people can lodge a request to be assisted in evacuation through Council or SES, or Triple zero (000) if it is an emergency and their life is immediate danger, but we encourage people to use own transport, stay with family or friends and move now before it is too late. We can only deliver support if we can link resident need with the resources that we have available, and they are limited,” he says.

“This is an evolving situation but very soon, with the current forecast, it will be unsafe to move. Our first priority is the safety of our community and staff. The forecasts will continue to evolve today.

“I understand many residents might be feeling a bit anxious, but rest assured our teams are watching the situation closely and are already operating around the clock with other key agencies to manage this situation if it escalates.

“TC Alfred will bring heavy rains, damaging and destructive winds, severe erosion and flooding. Residents are being urged to take the warnings seriously and prepare for a cyclone or flood event.

“Wind gusts of up to 130km/hr are predicted so it is important to prioritise safety, stay indoors and keep your emergency kit close.

“Places of refuge are for emergency stay only and so people should immediately consider all options and be appropriately prepared. Council urges people to move now if needed before it is too dangerous to travel on roads. Places of refuge are expected to be under heavy strain and will be uncomfortable, we ask residents to be patient and help each other in these difficult times.

“A cyclone brings gale force winds making it dangerous for people to move around the City. The time may come when Council, SES or Emergency Services cannot assist residents as it is unsafe.”

Stay alert with the Moreton Bay City Council’s Disaster Dashboard: https://disaster.moretonbay.qld.gov.au/.

Warning messages from Council will be issued through Moreton Alert and Emergency Alert Messaging as required.

If people need urgent support, they can phone Council’s centre on 07 3205 0555

Phone Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage.

If your life is in immediate danger call Triple 000.

People should save the national emergency alert number +61 444 444 444

UPDATE 7.50AM: Tropical Cyclone Alfred is continuing to slowly move towards the South East Queensland coast, and is expected to make landfall "later Friday or early Saturday, most likely between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.

The Bureau of Meteorology has just issued its latest update. TC Alfred remains a Category 2 system with sustained winds near the centre of 95km/h and wind gusts up to 130km/h.

It is presently about 285km east of Brisbane and 260km east northeast of the Gold Coast, moving at 7km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will continue its approach towards the southeast Queensland coast, with the far western edge already impacting the coast between Coolangatta and Ballina.

Alfred is forecast to maintain this intensity as it continues to approach the South East Queensland coast. 

The Bureau's technical bulletin says: "The possibility of Alfred reaching low end category 3 strength before making landfall is decreasing. Model guidance is extremely consistent in the intensity of Alfred plateauing after Thursday, even if it remains over water during Friday.

"A mid-level ridge to the south will steer Alfred westwards towards the coast, however more recent guidance shows greater variation in the strength of the
steering flow. The consensus is now for slower westward motion, and as a result a delayed time of coastal crossing. 

"The latest track indicates a coastal crossing is more likely during daylight hours on Friday, however the spread of guidance now includes the possibility of crossing being delayed until Saturday."

UPDATE 5AM: The Bureau of Meteorology has just issued its latest update on Tropical Cyclone Alfred which is slowly making its way to the South East Queensland coast.

The City of Moreton Bay remains in the warning area, which extends from Double Island Point to Grafton in New South Wales, and includes the City of Moreton Bay.

Cyclone Alfred remains a Category 2 system with sustained winds near the centre of 95km/h and wind gusts up to 130km/h.

It is about 325km east of Brisbane and 300km east of the Gold Coast, moving at 7km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will continue its approach towards the South East Queensland coast, with the far western edge already impacting the coast from about Coolangatta to Ballina.

Alfred is forecast to maintain this intensity as it continues to approach the South East Queensland coast. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast during Friday, most likely between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.

The Bureau's technical bulletin says: "The latest track indicates a coastal crossing is more likely during daylight hours on Friday, however the spread of
guidance now includes the possibility of crossing being delayed until Saturday".

Gales with damaging wind gust up to 120km/h are expected to develop along South East Queensland coastal and island communities between Double Island Point and Grafton during Thursday and will persist through Friday.

Destructive wind gusts of up to 155km/h may develop about coastal and island locations near, and to the south of, the cyclone centre late Thursday or early Friday as Alfred's destructive core approaches and crosses the coast. Destructive wind gusts may extend to the further inland close to the cyclone centre during Friday.

A dangerous storm tide is likely along the coastal foreshore for exposed areas near and south of the cyclone centre if the timing of coastal crossing coincides with a high tide.

Tides are likely to rise significantly above the highest high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous inundation of coastal low-lying areas.

Abnormally high tides are likely to continue causing minor flooding of coastal low-lying areas between Double Island Point and Grafton, particularly during the time of high tides early Thursday morning, early Friday morning and early Saturday morning. Damaging surf leading to significant beach erosion remains likely for the open beaches between Double Island Point and Grafton.

Heavy rainfall may develop for South East Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Thursday evening. Heavy to locally intense rainfall, which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding may occur near and south of the cyclone centre as Alfred approaches and crosses the coast. Separate Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches are current and include the Pine and Caboolture rivers.

Moreton Bay City Council Mayor Peter Flannery says regardless of where Tropical Cyclone Alfred crosses, the city can expect high winds not seen for 50 years, plenty of rain and storm surges which could threaten low-lying areas.

“It’s moving around a lot, so we’ll wait and see,” he said.

“Either way, I think we’re going to cop an enormous amount of wind … high winds that we haven’t seen for many, many, many decades. People may not have seen them for over 50 years. (There will be) lots of rain.

“We’re concerned about the storm surges on top of a high tide which is predicted between Thursday night and Friday morning, when the cyclone is supposed to come over. It could be a double-whammy there.” Read the full story here 

Public transport has been suspended across South East Queensland, schools are closed today and people are being advised to stay at home. Elective surgery has been cancelled today and tomorrow, but hospital emergency departments remain open.

A number of roads are already closed across the City of Moreton Bay. Here is the list

Understand your Risk - Follow Council’s Disaster Dashboard here: https://disaster.moretonbay.qld.gov.au/

Make a Plan - Check your emergency kit, secure loose items around your home, speak to your family and household about what you’ll do in the event of storms or severe weather. https://www.getready.qld.gov.au/getting-ready/protect-your-home

Pack a Kit - Check your emergency kit and replace items you may need

Current weather warnings can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/

To find out more about how to prepare for a cyclone go to: Cyclone and storm surge | Get Ready Queensland